Holy cow. Great, well written board. I can tell you put a lot of effort into this.
Like you, I am much higher on consensus on Tyler Tanner, Patrick Ngongba II, Yaxel Lendeborg, Joshua Jefferson, Dailyn Swain, Daniel Jacobsen, Motiejus Krivas, Tamin Lipsey, Malachi Moreno, Jalen Washington, Nolan Winter, Alvaro Folgueiras, and Bruce Thornton.
You are also lower than consensus on Mikel Brown Jr, Labaron Philon, and Koa Peat, which I agree with
honestly I struggle with how high you are on with Morez Johnson Jr.(undersized big who can't shoot) and Zvoinimir Ivisic(will get bodied in the NBA), but I do see that both are doing well.
Haven't looked at Pryce yet, but I'm intrigued in him.
I could go on for hours talking about all the players you like, so if you wanna talk ball I'll respond.
thank you Adam! I appreciate your support and your thoughts. will always be happy to respond to your comments.
Morez isn't typically my type of prospect, and a non-shooting undersized big is usually one of the lowest EV bets a team can make. even someone like onyeka, who put up monstrous stats at usc at ~6'9 240, has been underwhelming. a few things that interest me, sorted from least to most interesting:
1. highly impactful production. second best RAPM out of underclassmen, second best player on what could be one of the best cbb teams ever, productive EYBL stats, and 65 TS/8.5% block/25 PER at the U19 WC are incredible data points. it solidifies my belief in the robustness of his production. still, the distribution of his stats is concerning, which leads to:
2. he might be able to shoot. will be monitoring his FT% but 80% this year. 78% in the summer at U19 WC. he's taken a few threes, and his form looks sort of fluid but not quite projectable. A full season of 80% FT would be really nice.
3. he's not too undersized. he's ~6'9 with a 7'3 WS. below-average height but wingspan could be worse (missi and onyeka are ~ 7'2). What's really moving is his weight: he was listed at 255 pounds at illinois, which is highly unusual for a teenager without immense height.
still, none of this convincingly beats the "onyeka allegations", as onyeka had decent touch, elite PER/BPM, and was listed 6'9/7'2 WS/245. but a prospect doing an onyeka cosplay at one year older seems like a reasonable first round bet for now. a production drop would be pretty devastating, as his elite age-adj production is primarily what gets him this high.
as for Big Z, your concern is logical. 7'2 at 250 is sort of low BMI. he reminds me of Jay Huff a bit, another shooting footer listed at 7'1 240, who also struggles to defend more physical players in the post (for his career, opponent rim freq is actually 1.1% higher with him on vs off). we really haven't seen a 7 footer take this many 3s while blocking that many shots, so it's more of a novelty ranking.
it's not a great iteration of a super low friction mold, especially with his poor cognition, but 7 footers that can finish with any degree of skill are probably my favorite mold. also, career 37% 3P on 174 career 3PA is nice.
well said. I think Morez has a floor as a bench guy but for me I see him returning for one more year so that his theoretical 3 point shot can become more actualized. Plus he could go lottery?
For big z, I LOVE the 3 and D skillset but worry about his limited ball skills and rebounding. I also worry about his fluidity. I agree with the Huff comparison, and I currently see him as an end of bench guy. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes another year as well
As a Duke fan, I love Pat. I do have a couple concerns I'd like to hear your thoughts on, though.
I do worry about his defensive upside in the NBA. I understand that his defensive stats are great (e.g., T20 DRAPM, -12.5% ON/OFF opponent Rim FG% delta), but as someone who watches each game, I worry about his physical traits translating.
1. He lacks vertical pop, which makes me wonder whether his elite rim protection will translate up.
2. He lacks the lateral quickness to survive in any ball screen coverage besides drop. Duke loves to switch as much as possible, but it is clear he cannot be involved in that coverage.
My other concern is really just his overall right-now preparedness for the next level. I can't actually quantify this, but I do watch every Duke game, and there are some nights where Pat just isn't engaged/doesn't have it. He lacks consistent assertiveness, which cause him to seemingly disappear in some contests (you can see this in his game logs). This is a somewhat heuristic mindset, but it feels risky to use a lottery pick in a loaded class on a guy who fades as frequently as Pat.
hard to disagree with any of your concerns. his lack of assertiveness + heavy feet is a difficult integration to reconcile. that scant defensive rebounding rate is function of these issues.
his steal rate and above-average instincts should allow him to play shallower variations of drop, but his coverage is somewhat limited. and his all-in-one production metrics are certainly lower than expected, with high variance game-to-game. part of why his season-long BPM is so mediocre is that his BPM vs bottom 240 teams is somehow lower than his BPM vs top 120 teams; he hasn't killed bad comp like many NBA-quality centers do.
these are all pertinent concerns that limit pat's defensive upside. I just think that there's too much special here. perhaps the most important physical trait on defense is size, and it helps that he's a correctly sized center with a 7'4 WS and 250 pounds. he has some of the best "cognition-at-size" I've seen, with above-average passing, A:TO, and steal rate for a 250 lb'er, and I project that it will allow him to continue being a reasonably good defender. even if his run/jump athleticism certainly limits the ceiling.
given that there's an element of in-season projection here, i expect his box-plus minus and general production to rise during ACC play. and these big, physical guys who can pass tend to develop in unexpected ways, so pat has enough super outlier strengths for me to keep him top 10.
still, that sort of upside can only take a player so far without consistent, high level production. if he keeps "fading" like this, the risk will outweigh the reward in this lottery range.
excited to see how he produces in conference play!
Can't say enough about this man. Love this and u! I know I don't have the greatest grasp of some of the analytical thresholds; however, you explain the pretty practically where someone who isn't as spreadsheet savvy can understand your arguments. Very hard to push back on these ranks with the explanations written. That said, I can't help but notice the run on B1G guys near the back end of this list. As someone baaarely eclipsing 6 feet, I take a liking to the lil fellas making it in "da league". Furthermore, I can't get enough of the classic college players that stay at the same school for multiple years and just ball out. Naturally watching lots of B1G hoops, I've seen a certain Bruce Thorton cook for years. Before I thought Braedon Smith was good, I saw Bruce taking and making tough shots and respected the game hella. I thought Smith was more of an Edey merchant; however, as the landscape has shifted in West Lafeyette post Edey... it's been more of the B Smith show. Loyer, Kaufman-Renn & others have stuck around as Painter has had the (largely) Indiana kids buy into built over bought mindset & while Kaufman-Renn is great, I think Smith is the heartbeat of the squad as well as the most impressive sub seven-footer from Purdue in the past couple years. I can buy into Bruce Thorton's ceiling being higher as a truly valuable (tough) shot taker- maker, but I got to ask how far down this list do you go before you consider a classic college stud like Braedon as an NBA prospect. Is he in the 40's, 50's? I want to get your thoughts on Cade Tyson as an NBA prospect too. Undersized, probably. Not skilled enough? Perhaps. Volatile? Of course, but might have some skills. Lastly as you entertain my questions, why t120 as a sample? Is that a more predictive competition level than t50, 75, or 100? I got more to say brother but let's leave it at that for now. Thanks for this WONDERFUL READ & let's have some more hoops discourse in da near future :)
Holy cow. Great, well written board. I can tell you put a lot of effort into this.
Like you, I am much higher on consensus on Tyler Tanner, Patrick Ngongba II, Yaxel Lendeborg, Joshua Jefferson, Dailyn Swain, Daniel Jacobsen, Motiejus Krivas, Tamin Lipsey, Malachi Moreno, Jalen Washington, Nolan Winter, Alvaro Folgueiras, and Bruce Thornton.
You are also lower than consensus on Mikel Brown Jr, Labaron Philon, and Koa Peat, which I agree with
honestly I struggle with how high you are on with Morez Johnson Jr.(undersized big who can't shoot) and Zvoinimir Ivisic(will get bodied in the NBA), but I do see that both are doing well.
Haven't looked at Pryce yet, but I'm intrigued in him.
I could go on for hours talking about all the players you like, so if you wanna talk ball I'll respond.
thank you Adam! I appreciate your support and your thoughts. will always be happy to respond to your comments.
Morez isn't typically my type of prospect, and a non-shooting undersized big is usually one of the lowest EV bets a team can make. even someone like onyeka, who put up monstrous stats at usc at ~6'9 240, has been underwhelming. a few things that interest me, sorted from least to most interesting:
1. highly impactful production. second best RAPM out of underclassmen, second best player on what could be one of the best cbb teams ever, productive EYBL stats, and 65 TS/8.5% block/25 PER at the U19 WC are incredible data points. it solidifies my belief in the robustness of his production. still, the distribution of his stats is concerning, which leads to:
2. he might be able to shoot. will be monitoring his FT% but 80% this year. 78% in the summer at U19 WC. he's taken a few threes, and his form looks sort of fluid but not quite projectable. A full season of 80% FT would be really nice.
3. he's not too undersized. he's ~6'9 with a 7'3 WS. below-average height but wingspan could be worse (missi and onyeka are ~ 7'2). What's really moving is his weight: he was listed at 255 pounds at illinois, which is highly unusual for a teenager without immense height.
still, none of this convincingly beats the "onyeka allegations", as onyeka had decent touch, elite PER/BPM, and was listed 6'9/7'2 WS/245. but a prospect doing an onyeka cosplay at one year older seems like a reasonable first round bet for now. a production drop would be pretty devastating, as his elite age-adj production is primarily what gets him this high.
as for Big Z, your concern is logical. 7'2 at 250 is sort of low BMI. he reminds me of Jay Huff a bit, another shooting footer listed at 7'1 240, who also struggles to defend more physical players in the post (for his career, opponent rim freq is actually 1.1% higher with him on vs off). we really haven't seen a 7 footer take this many 3s while blocking that many shots, so it's more of a novelty ranking.
it's not a great iteration of a super low friction mold, especially with his poor cognition, but 7 footers that can finish with any degree of skill are probably my favorite mold. also, career 37% 3P on 174 career 3PA is nice.
well said. I think Morez has a floor as a bench guy but for me I see him returning for one more year so that his theoretical 3 point shot can become more actualized. Plus he could go lottery?
For big z, I LOVE the 3 and D skillset but worry about his limited ball skills and rebounding. I also worry about his fluidity. I agree with the Huff comparison, and I currently see him as an end of bench guy. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes another year as well
As a Duke fan, I love Pat. I do have a couple concerns I'd like to hear your thoughts on, though.
I do worry about his defensive upside in the NBA. I understand that his defensive stats are great (e.g., T20 DRAPM, -12.5% ON/OFF opponent Rim FG% delta), but as someone who watches each game, I worry about his physical traits translating.
1. He lacks vertical pop, which makes me wonder whether his elite rim protection will translate up.
2. He lacks the lateral quickness to survive in any ball screen coverage besides drop. Duke loves to switch as much as possible, but it is clear he cannot be involved in that coverage.
My other concern is really just his overall right-now preparedness for the next level. I can't actually quantify this, but I do watch every Duke game, and there are some nights where Pat just isn't engaged/doesn't have it. He lacks consistent assertiveness, which cause him to seemingly disappear in some contests (you can see this in his game logs). This is a somewhat heuristic mindset, but it feels risky to use a lottery pick in a loaded class on a guy who fades as frequently as Pat.
Anyways, great stuff!
thank you Will!
hard to disagree with any of your concerns. his lack of assertiveness + heavy feet is a difficult integration to reconcile. that scant defensive rebounding rate is function of these issues.
his steal rate and above-average instincts should allow him to play shallower variations of drop, but his coverage is somewhat limited. and his all-in-one production metrics are certainly lower than expected, with high variance game-to-game. part of why his season-long BPM is so mediocre is that his BPM vs bottom 240 teams is somehow lower than his BPM vs top 120 teams; he hasn't killed bad comp like many NBA-quality centers do.
these are all pertinent concerns that limit pat's defensive upside. I just think that there's too much special here. perhaps the most important physical trait on defense is size, and it helps that he's a correctly sized center with a 7'4 WS and 250 pounds. he has some of the best "cognition-at-size" I've seen, with above-average passing, A:TO, and steal rate for a 250 lb'er, and I project that it will allow him to continue being a reasonably good defender. even if his run/jump athleticism certainly limits the ceiling.
given that there's an element of in-season projection here, i expect his box-plus minus and general production to rise during ACC play. and these big, physical guys who can pass tend to develop in unexpected ways, so pat has enough super outlier strengths for me to keep him top 10.
still, that sort of upside can only take a player so far without consistent, high level production. if he keeps "fading" like this, the risk will outweigh the reward in this lottery range.
excited to see how he produces in conference play!
Can't say enough about this man. Love this and u! I know I don't have the greatest grasp of some of the analytical thresholds; however, you explain the pretty practically where someone who isn't as spreadsheet savvy can understand your arguments. Very hard to push back on these ranks with the explanations written. That said, I can't help but notice the run on B1G guys near the back end of this list. As someone baaarely eclipsing 6 feet, I take a liking to the lil fellas making it in "da league". Furthermore, I can't get enough of the classic college players that stay at the same school for multiple years and just ball out. Naturally watching lots of B1G hoops, I've seen a certain Bruce Thorton cook for years. Before I thought Braedon Smith was good, I saw Bruce taking and making tough shots and respected the game hella. I thought Smith was more of an Edey merchant; however, as the landscape has shifted in West Lafeyette post Edey... it's been more of the B Smith show. Loyer, Kaufman-Renn & others have stuck around as Painter has had the (largely) Indiana kids buy into built over bought mindset & while Kaufman-Renn is great, I think Smith is the heartbeat of the squad as well as the most impressive sub seven-footer from Purdue in the past couple years. I can buy into Bruce Thorton's ceiling being higher as a truly valuable (tough) shot taker- maker, but I got to ask how far down this list do you go before you consider a classic college stud like Braedon as an NBA prospect. Is he in the 40's, 50's? I want to get your thoughts on Cade Tyson as an NBA prospect too. Undersized, probably. Not skilled enough? Perhaps. Volatile? Of course, but might have some skills. Lastly as you entertain my questions, why t120 as a sample? Is that a more predictive competition level than t50, 75, or 100? I got more to say brother but let's leave it at that for now. Thanks for this WONDERFUL READ & let's have some more hoops discourse in da near future :)