To Nobody's Surprise, the BPM-Industrial Complex Loves Ryan Kalkbrenner
Excerpts from Swish Theory's Draft Guide
The following report was published in the Swish Theory’s 2025 NBA Draft Guide. You will not find a more comprehensive, detailed, or accurate resource pertaining to the 2025 NBA Draft. I strongly urge everyone to check it out.
Special shoutout to Maurya (@TheFlareScreen) for many thoughtful discussions and wonderful contemplations. His insights were especially crucial for this piece. He is a rising star in this space, and deserves a follow.
Ryan Kalkbrenner was one of the best offensive and defensive players in the country last year, and he's been elite on both ends ever since he stepped foot on the college basketball hardwood. He's a paint dominant seven footer with a 7'6 wingspan, he's dropped 49 in a game, and he's the reigning Naismith Defensive Player of the Year. Kalkbrenner is a really good, two-way player and he's had one of the best college careers we've ever seen.
Great. Now, let's get to the fun stuff.
King of Production
There’s a decent chance Mr. Kalkbrenner, proprietor of a 7'6 wingspan, shoots threes in the NBA. One of the craziest stats of this cycle is that Kalkbrenner is 6/21 on dribble jumper 3s in the last two seasons. Of course, most of those jumpers aren’t truly off the dribble, and they look more like this:
But coupled with his strong hook counter (12% frequency), huge sample of FT competency (70% on 600 attempts), and respectable 43% on non-rim 2s across his career, I’d wager there’s a pretty reasonable chance that Kalkbrenner becomes a legit stretch 5 in the NBA. While his volume is somewhat low (1.8 3PA/100 across his career), this far outpaces many current stretch 5’s shooting volume in prospecthood.
Now that you’re captivated, let’s get back to the boring stuff.
Kalkbrenner is an elite finisher. Absolutely elite. He made a whopping 77% of his close 2s across his career, but what’s even more compelling is that nearly half his rim makes were dunks. His elite finishing and hook conversion was good for a career 67% TS. You can’t teach that size and length, and it appears inevitable that Kalkbrenner will be a dominant finisher in the NBA.
What’s especially compelling about Kalkbrenner is his precocious production. This is not your typical college senior breakout; Kalkbrenner has been consistently elite since his sophomore year. Take box-score metrics: Kalkbrenner has put together 4 straight seasons of 5 PRPG + 9 BPM, and no one else has even had more than 2 such seasons. Along with Ayton, Edey, and Kaminsky, he’s the only 7-footer to eclipse 6 PRPG. And Kalkbrenner hasn’t just dominated college; he played a critical role on the Team USA national team that won gold at the 2021 FIBA U19 World Cup.
Kalkbrenner finished top 5 in Player Efficiency Rating at the tournament, behind a triumvirate of seven-footers: Edey, Wemby, and Chet. Some traits continuing over from Creighton: Kalkbrenner was a monster offensive rebounder but a tepid defensive rebounder. His steal rate was nonexistent; he drew just 0.24 FTA/FGA, and his assist rate was under 10%. On the bright side, he had a 10% block rate and just 1 TO in 7 games.
Kalkbrenner’s dominance even stemmed back to AAU. Playing for Mac Irvin Fire’s 17U team on the EYBL circuit, Kalkbrenner averaged a ridiculous 4.3 stocks per game while shooting 80% FT + 59% TS. He managed to block 2 shots per foul; this is the highest block-to-foul ratio I’ve ever seen, in any context. Somehow, he was ranked outside the t100 despite dizzying EYBL production. To this day, that remains the most baffling mismatch of EYBL production and recruit rank that I’ve ever seen.
Addendum
Two qualms and one point of optimism:
First, Kalkbrenner is not as physically taxing on defenders. His career 40 FTR is weak, and he just doesn’t force contact in the post as much as prior seven-footers that I liked in the past. Furthermore, Kalkbrenner is a pretty mediocre rebounder for his size; while some may argue his defensive rebounding issues are schematic, I’d point to his 15% defensive rebound rate during the U19 World Cup. He’s also just a mediocre offensive rebounder for his size, and he doesn’t feast on putbacks very often.
Losing valuable second chance points and free throw attempts is a big deal! Edey and Clingan, for instance, spawned into the league as two of its best rebounders, which allowed them to contribute immediate value despite some scoring struggles. Kalkbrenner doesn’t have this same leeway.
Second, Kalkbrenner’s processing may limit his upside. His career 7.7% assist and 0.9% steal marks should be red flags, and they’re corroborated by his lack of passing and steal volume in AAU and FIBA. Zach Edey is a solid point of comparison here, but as someone who watched the tens of hours of Edey tape, I feel confident saying that Edey was a better processor. Edey had higher passing volume while commanding far more attention per post touch. Moreover, Edey was comfortable soaking up usage as the primary point of focus for defenses, while Kalkbrenner’s usage and scoring burden were much lower throughout his career.
As for a point of optimism: Edey went from mediocre Purdue block rate to 80th percentile block rate + 30th percentile steal rate (for position) in his rookie season. Edey’s block rate was suppressed at Purdue because he intentionally avoided fouling: his team needed him to play the majority of the game.
Similarly, what happens when an NBA team plays Kalkbrenner just 20-25 minutes a game and doesn’t place the same anti-foul constraints on him? If he’s already pushing 2 blocks per foul across AAU + college, and his primary objective shifts from avoiding fouls to grabbing blocks, what’s stopping Kalkbrenner from pushing a 90th percentile block rate for position? We actually got a glimpse of this reality at the U19 World Cup, where Kalkbrenner dropped to “just” 1.29 blocks per foul but hit 10% block rate.
Given his tools and the degree to which he generates blocks without fouls, I expect Kalk’s stock numbers to rise given his astounding discipline. His wingspan, average agility testing, and great rim protection should make him a beast in drop coverage, but a lack of plus agility and poor changes of direction likely limits the coverage versatility he provides to essentially just drop for the time being.
Closing Thoughts
Kalkbrenner is the last of the vaunted High School Class of 2021 center class, which included luminaries such as Evan Mobley, Zach Edey, Walker Kessler, Mark Williams, Johni Broome, Hunter Dickinson, and Adama Sanogo. A center class packed full with perennial double-digit BPMers. Following in the path of his drafted contemporaries, Kalkbrenner is going to dunk/finish everything, potentially shoot (not a gimmick), and anchor a legit defense. His lack of passing, foul drawing, and rebounding could hinder him, but Kalkbrenner is too big and impactful not to stick in the league for a long time.
Every team could use a Kalk.