heuristics and observational threads
avi@100guaranteed
the most important precocious skill integration is oreb-assist-stocks
this is the ultimate functional athleticism x feel proxy, a synthesis of skills that exponentially raises ceiling beyond perception of raw box stats/bpm
lots and lots of instructive developmental stories here
7:46 PM · Jul 18, 2024 · 46.9K Views
8 Replies · 15 Reposts · 121 Likes
avi@100guaranteed
outlier high predraft free throw % is prolly the most underrated star signal.
part of this is linear bias: we default to thinking that 80% to 85% is the same jump as 70% to 75%.
in reality, 80% to 85% FT represents a leap from the 80th percentile to the 96th percentile!
1:45 AM · Aug 29, 2025 · 48.6K Views
7 Replies · 30 Reposts · 177 Likes
avi@100guaranteed
ncaa average assist to turnover rate is at an all-time high, again.
there are draft implications.
12:33 AM · Nov 21, 2025 · 5.14K Views
1 Reply · 7 Reposts · 36 Likes
avi@100guaranteed
versatility and ancillary production have never been more important for players with "guard" height
7:19 PM · Nov 22, 2025 · 3.52K Views
3 Replies · 2 Reposts · 45 Likes
avi@100guaranteed
projecting draft strength is far too high-variance an endeavor for teams to collectively fade the 2027 draft
12:45 AM · Feb 6, 2026 · 11.7K Views
6 Replies · 7 Reposts · 84 Likes
avi@100guaranteed
todd's "hold time" is a reasonable analog of reaction speed
i've found that some combination of A:TO, steal%, and on-ball rate is the most statistically sound predictor of film-derived reaction speed
it is fascinating how well an arbitrary reaction proxy reflects the real thing
Todd Whitehead @CrumpledJumper
Super fascinating chat between Carlisle and @C2_Cooper! Was intrigued by the discussion of Mathurin's decision making and how he fits into Indy's system, so I calculated these "hold times" that show the average time elapsed before each Pacer decided to dribble, pass or shoot. https://t.co/ZHAnipCAyh
3:54 AM · Aug 11, 2025 · 17.4K Views
4 Replies · 17 Reposts · 87 Likes
avi@100guaranteed
16 sophomores were selected in the 2019 nba draft
1 sophomore was selected in 2025 nba draft
it's a clear downward trend.
so how does this compare to recent trends of freshmen, junior, senior, and international draft picks?
12:34 PM · Oct 16, 2025 · 10.2K Views
2 Replies · 13 Reposts · 41 Likes
avi@100guaranteed
this sort of asymmetric dominance is the essence of skill singularity. when you are world-class at what you do, there must be a pathway to return strong impact.
the jazz would be wise to explore oscar's best lineup configurations rather than let him dominate the g league again.
3:33 AM · Feb 4, 2026 · 1.18K Views
1 Reply · 19 Likes
avi@100guaranteed
despite strong production at face value, many of the highly touted freshmen struggled to finish across the final 2 months of the season.
nba s&d will certainly be useful, but there's a real edge in locating these finishing struggles on a spectrum from correctable to structural.
2:29 PM · Apr 5, 2026 · 6.37K Views
7 Replies · 4 Reposts · 75 Likes