Quick Study: Guards with Bad Vert
Another anthropometric query and its application to the 2024 Draft
Remember to sort by draft pick here as to immediately see the players who were drafted.
There seems to be a pretty objective insight here that guards with poor standing vert have poor outcomes. None of the drafted guys were very good.
Cassius Winston bad vert is unsurprising. One guy I’m interested in is Jordan Adams, who had a very strong profile, but 0 dunks in his collegiate career. It makes more sense that Adams had no dunks in college given his badness in standing vert. Trevor Keels is another guy who I was high on during draft season.
There’s a few interesting names amongst the undrafted crop. Some outlier successes include Bryn Forbes and Quinn Cook. Seems like the recipe to overcome poor vert is to be a nuclear shooter. Not a guarantee tho; obviously Cassius never stuck. Also just not a very great bet; Bryn and Quinn have combined for ~ 15 career WS.
Some other undrafted guys with nice profiles include Zach Norvell, Mason Jones, and Melo Trimble. Zach and Melo were two guys in particular whose lack of NBA success has always confused me. Interesting how Zach had 13 dunks and shot 60% atr over two years at Gonzaga despite poor vert. None of these guys were nuclear shooters.
Now let’s look at max vert, and raise the threshold since it’s obviously easier to hit 25 inches on max:
Again, reminder to sort by draft pick first.
Some repeat names: Jordan Adams and Cassius Winston. Seem to be the two worst vertical athletes drafted since 2000.
Jarrett Jack is a legitimate success story. Nothing insane, but just around 15th in his draft class in WS and BPM. Good ole journeyman PG, as he wasn’t even that insane of a shooter. No one really that notable amongst the undrafted crop.
Application to 2024 Draft:
There’s three names here that somewhat qualify:
Juan Nunez
Juan Nunez is the only guy who unfortunately meets BOTH the criterion. His 22 inch standing vert is especially horrific, as it would tie for the lowest for a draft player since 2000. 29 inch max vert is similiarly terrible.
This is pretty unsurprising though; Nunez tape shows a small guard who has great size but is extraordinarily ground bound. He somehow had 5 dunks in 54 games this year (4 were in transition, and seems like he’s relying on his length to barely get up), along with a paltry 0.18% block rate.
Nunez is a pretty bad shooter, so it’s unlikely he can provide value as a spacer a la Bryn/Quinn Cook. Maybe he can return Jarrett Jack value, but clearly that’s an extremely rare outcome. My comp of choice thus far has been Goran Dragic, who also wasn’t a great shooter coming into the NBA (and a pretty bad prospect overall imo). But Goran was an outlier athlete, esp relative to Euros. And Nunez is decidedly not.
Cam Spencer
Cam Spencer is old and poor vert, but he did barely avoid the second criterion by being at 30.5 max vert. 23 inch standing vert is pretty bad though; it would be the second lowest vert of any drafted guard since 2000. The thing with Cam is that he’s probably the best shooter in the class; at the very least, same convo as McCain or Reed. Far better college player and notably, a much better finisher, than Bryn and Quinn, so it’s not entirely over for Cam at all. 24 on draft day + historically bad vert is a tough sell though, and it will be tough for Cam to hit top 15 value in the class. I will still naively buy Cam as a first round player for now.
Tristen Newton
Tristen didn’t really qualify for either (barely missed the standing vert cutoff, as he was at 25 inch). Interesting how both the UConn guards were the worst vertically testing guards that played NCAA, and even Clingan had a pretty poor vert. Maybe its a Dan Hurley thing to not value vert very much. This low vert isn’t that surprising either; Newton was shooting 38% on 2s just a year ago. Poor vert + middling shooter is not a particularly interesting combo, especially given Newton’s finishing badness. Probably another guy I’m going to fade a bit as we approach the draft.
Dillon Jones
Technically, he didn’t qualify this year, as you don’t see his name in the NBA Combine Screenshot: he was at 26.5 standing vert and 33.5 max vert this year. But if you look at the previous tables, you’ll see Dillon Jones on both. Really bad G League Combine last year. It’s nice that he made such a strong one year improvement, but I’m not sure how weight to put into it. 21 years old putting up terrible combine stats is objectively scary, and if he was able to improve his vert so much in a year, couldn’t we give that same benefit of the doubt to all of these players? Overall, the poor vert is evidenced by stats, as he has super low block and oreb%, and he barely gets up on his few dunks (seems to rely heavily on his monster WS).