Quick Study: Effect of WS on Outcomes for Rim Protectors?
A very reductive, general analysis of anthropometrics in regards to bigs with block% > 5
I’m trying to build my knowledge from scratch, which is harder than it sounds because of the terms, heuristics, and evaluation approaches intrinsic to the Draft Twitter schema. I’m going in completely fresh to try to prove/disprove this notion of length being important to NBA success for bigs. I’ll be using as few features as possible by design. Pretty much just height, WS, block%, assist%, and draft pick.
Let’s start by examining the utility of wingspan for players that are bad at being bigs in college (operational definition being bad rim protectors).
Importance of Wingspan for Purportedly Bad Rim Protectors
Let’s define bad rim protectors as players above 80 inches in height but with a block percentage between 4 and 6. To disprove the null hypothesis that length is correlated with success, we will try to show a relationship between length and success amongst a control group of poor rim protectors.
And… it appears exceedingly obvious who the NBA quality rim protectors are from the mickey mouse rim protectors just by virtue of ordering by WS. This is a remarkably accurate assessment. By my eye, the “NBA quality rim protectors” appear to be Thomas Bryant, Jarrett Allen, Nikola Vucevic (obv the offense carries him in the league), and Jakob Poeltl.
There’s a few guys, like Tyler Lydon, Frank Kaminsky, and Reggie Perry, who I would have been decently high on during their respective year. There’s a bit more clarity from my pov for why they didn’t translate defensively.
And there’s a few guys who’ve managed to stick in the league despite eh length. Guys like Plumlee, Cody Zeller, Olynyk. But generally, they have managed to stick by virtue of offense skill. This is clearly a very reductive excercise, but still the point remains.
I always hear that block% is not an adequate proxy for rim protection. Well, with the assistance of length, it becomes much easier to find the false negatives. The magic number appears to be around 88; ie, the minimum length with a largely undiluted sample of NBA quality rim protectors.
These are the guys in the 2024 NBA Draft who have a WS of 7’4+.
Edey/Clingan/Ware/Sarr obviously all in my top 8, and I’m pretty high on Dante too. I’m decently intrigued by Chomche though. Really young, great dimensions, and can really pass a bit. Don’t think he’s very good for now but opinions tbd.
My first thought: where is Yves Missi. I’m not really sure how he fits in the aforementioned lower WS query, since he did have somewhat underwhelming measureables (7’2 WS) and a middling 7% block percentage. Poeltl appears to be possible comp, but I’m interested in how common this phenomeon of low WS amongst rim protectors is. I hypothesize that the best rim protectors have 7’4+ WS, so let’s test this by looking at drafted bigs with block% > 5 and vary WS relative to the 7’4 threshold.
Names definitely look interesting. There’s a lot of power forwards here, which we’ll have to deal with for now. The dataset that I’m using is also a bit inconsistent, which is why this list is missing some luminaries like Bam Adebayo and DeAndre Jordan.
The most productive way to go through these names is just to sort by block%. Immediately, we see a bevy of notable names. Hassan had a terrible assist rate but that block+WS combo was too insane.
We have 4 “busts” in the t10 of block%: Queta, Cole Aldrich, Bol Bol, and Thabeet. Obviously a lot of missing context (age!), but we can kinda make sense of this. Obviously, Queta/Aldrich/Thabeet were all way older (they were all basically senior aged). Aldrich+Thabeet super low assist rate is also pretty rough; 3 years in college and stuck at ~3-6% assist is rough. Hard to tell what went wrong with Bol Bol. And honestly, I think Queta is probably a not-terrible bet to be okay in the future.
A lot of the undersized guys also ended up mid. If you sort by height (lowest to highest), there’s 16 names listed as 81 inches or below (6’9 or below). Most of them are bad/old. Nothing too wild, just an obvious indication that you want your bigs to be over 7 foot!
If you sort by height (highest to lowest), the names are immediately a lot more intriguing. The underclassmen especially are super bustproof it seems; most of the “busts” are juniors and seniors. For instance, Steven Adams bart profile doesn’t look very good, but he’s one of the few underclassmen who meet this.
Underclassmen on this list (block > 5, WS > 86 in), sorted by height: Bol Bol, Walker Kessler (soph), Mark Williams (soph), Steven Adams, Hassan Whiteside, Andre Drummond, Jalen Duren, JJJ, Myles Turner, DeMarcus Cousins, Ike Anigbogu (not sure why he’s here cus he didn’t play enough minutes to qualify), Wendell Carter, Derrick Favors, Bruno Fernando (soph), Jarrett Allen, Anthony Davis, Thomas Bryant (soph).
This is pretty insane lineup. Lots of false negatives (guys who I would have been low on because of mid bart profile), like Jarrett Allen, DeMarcus, Steven Adams, Whiteside. Early declares who measure well and block shots are deceptively good bets.
And, it certainly does look better than the guys below:
This isn’t the most inspiring company to be honest. It’s bust city over here.
Let’s sort by draft position, and let’s examine guys taken between 1-20.
Wow. There are 17 guys selected with a t20 pick, and only two of them are even half-decent. The only guys who even seem worth a t20 pick here are Kelly Olynyk and John Collins, neither of whom are in the league because they are particularly strong centers. Olynyk had the highest assist rate by far, and Collins is a hyperefficient power forward. Like in terms of true centers, it’s just busts everywhere.
It’s extraordinarily bleak for the 37 guys selected outside of the t20. Most of the guys who ended up solid were either strong passers or just not bigs at all.
Dieng was t10 in his class in WS and VORP, so he’s definitely a win at draft position. He was a very good passer (12% assist, 1.1 A:TO). Pascal was a PF. Clax was a young sophomore and a very good passer (12% assist). Richaun was listed as a PF but honestly him and Gafford are the success stories here. Richaun ended up shooting and Gafford (who somehow leads the 2019 class in total WS) probably had the most dominant interior season in a while (~90 dunks and 80% atr). Also, Dieng, Richaun, and Gafford are both in the t20 of this group in block%.
Not many other success stories. Mike Muscala? He ended up being a stretch big and returned like t20 value in the class. Richards is t30 in 2020 class in VORP and BPM. Same with Metu in the 2018 NBA Draft, although he’s become an okay stretch big. Paul Reed is t20 in BPM/VORP/WS for the 2020 class.
I don’t love using BPM/VORP or WS for ascertaining how good someone was relative to their draft. Especially since they are box score stats that tax too much for usage and efficiency. Lots of guards who are unfairly taxed and ranked too low by these metrics. So in reality, some of these rankings overstate the rank of these centers relative to their drafted peers.
Olynyk/Collins/Pascal/Dieng/Clax/Richaun/Dieng/Gafford/Muscala/Richards/Metu/Reed. Thats like a 20% hit rate. Pretty terrible, although this is obvious very reductive and there’s definitely real reasons why they hit or missed. Still, it’s kind of wild how many underclassmen busts there are here. Underclassman bigs drafted with suboptimal length have a much higher bust rate. Pretty much all upperclassmen bigs carry an element of risk, and it does seem as though some of these guys have to develop a capable perimeter shot to stick
If we’re trying to find a heuristic that maximizes the number of “hits”, it’s probably just guys with a high block rate and high assist rate. Specifically, sorting by block rate and only selecting guys with block > 7.5 and assist>10 seems reasonable (it would yield Muscala, Clax, Dieng, Reed, Onuaku (bust), and Nerlens Noel. Let’s call this the heuristic.
Lots of waffle, but here’s an actionable takeaway: underclassmen bigs with a WS > 88 inch have a WAY higher hit rate than those under. For those guys with WS < 88in, they need to either be decent passers (most of the successful guys had assist rate over 7%), develop a perimeter shot, or be young/outlier playfinishers.
Now let’s apply this to the 2024 NBA Class:
Application of Findings to 2024 NBA Class
I’m only going to go through the players who actually measured at the combine. I do not have time to go through Portsmouth or G League Camp measurements.
Here’s everyone who is eligible based on our criterion (6’8 and 5% block):
Zach Edey
Donovan Clingan
Quinten Post
Alex Sarr
Kel’El Ware
Jesse Edwards
Kyle Filipowski
Ariel Hukporti
Yves Missi
N’Faly Dante
Matas
DaRon Holmes
PJ Hall
How many underclassmen are above/under the 88 inch WS mark?
Clingan: 90.75 inches
Sarr: 88.25 inches
Ware: 88.50 inches
Filipowski: 82.50 inches
Missi: 86 inches
Matas: 82 inches
Above
Clingan is so good man. Crushes the threshold, and is destined to be a pretty damn good center in the league. Very high floor player.
Sarr is also very impressive. Strong block% for NBL and much longer than his common comparison, Claxton. Pretty decent passer (1.0 A:TO).
Ware is probably the biggest winner. 1.0 A:TO and 9% assist in conjunction with his length and lots of dunks. This is a very high floor NBA player.
Below
Filipowski WS kinda crazy, but there’s a reason he’s compared to Olynyk so frequently. Olynyk is pretty easily a t8 guy from the 2013 class by the numbers, so it makes sense that Filipowski be projected around there too. Flip also a way better passer than Olynyk (20% assist is wild). Based on the measureables, there does seem to be a scary floor, though.
Missi is the biggest loser of this analysis. The lack of length AND bad assist is quite the combo: the only comp who made it out of this unfavorable hole is Nick Richards/Daniel Gafford. Missi is a strong lob threat like Gafford, and has a very high motor: exceptional oreb%, high dunk/ftr, and has shown strong coordination with some driving flashes. I’m a fan of Missi by tape, but I suppose the low blocks and poor conversion rate on putbacks can somewhat be explained by this lack of actualized length.
Matas really shouldn’t be here. He’s a wing who just so happens to be so good at weakside rim pro that he’s lucked his way here. Not much to say, but I am surprised his WS isn’t as higher.
How do the > 88 WS guys besides the underclassmen fare?
The upperclassmen with > 88 WS are Edey (94.75), Jesse Edwards (89), and N’Faly Dante (90).
Edey is interesting because he has by far the biggest wingspan out of anyone measured in the database. He also has a decent assist rate, although he’s relatively old and not the best rim protector. Hard to make any assumptions off Edey based on these findings because he’s such an outlier. Decent assist% is good sign, and perhaps he can transform into a stretch 5 like some others by virtue of strong 4 year FT record.
N’Faly Dante is the next most interesting guy. I really don’t know how to grade him by this analysis. He’s amongst the leaders in WS, strong assist%, but has a very low block rate for his size. He’s also old, but he is one of the best playfinishers in recent memory. Perhaps he can have a Gafford type impact?
I’m not very sold on Jesse Edwards, and I doubt he’s even drafted. Has little stretch upside (< 60% FT), and he would be the oldest player drafted this year by a lot (he’s been 24 for 3 months!). Can’t argue against the tools though.
How does the heuristic fare for this class?
Again, we’re looking for guys with block >=8 and assist > 10.
Not a single one of the “WS < 88 inch” players made it. Daron was kinda close, at 7.2% block and 20% assist. But this just isn’t a great sign for most of these guys.
Amongst the “WS > 88 inch” players, Clingan and Ware qualify via the heuristic. Sarr was like one assist away from qualifying.
Conclusions:
Nothing crazy. Clingan and Ware are the safest bets in this class. Very, very strong likelihood to return t14 value in this class. Sarr also appears to have a high floor.
Edey/Dante/Holmes appear to be the next best bets, in that order. Again, I’m not talking about overall prospect goodness, but instead simply just stickiness based on this highly reductive analysis of 3-4 total features.
Finally, let’s repeat our two findings: there is a highly significant threshold around 88 inches, where outcomes become pronouncedly more successful, particularly for underclassmen. An underclassmen with a wingspan over 88 inches is one of the strongest possible bets one can make.
Maybe this seems obvious. I promise you, drafting Steven Adams or Andre Drummond or Bam Adebayo or DeAndre Jordan was nowhere near obvious. You know the adage: productive young players tend to develop in unforseen ways. Well, young players with outlier length can develop in unforseen ways too. Couple the two and now you have started to grasp the underpinnings of outlier development.
Finally, the heuristic. It appears that players with block% > 7.5 and assist rate > 10 are able to overcome a lack of length. Unfortunately, none of the WS < 88 inch players managed to meet this heuristic, though Daron was close. Edey was also kinda close. But at the end of the day, it’s just Ware, Clingan, and Sarr at the top. I’ve been a strong Ware supporter this entire cycle, but his well-roundedness is especially eye-opening. I would easily advocate for all 3 of Ware/Clingan/Sarr to be taken in the top 8, and perhaps higher.
THE GOOD SHIT:
My database is kinda mid, so I’m just gonna go through every year and list every single underclassmen with WS > 7’4 and block% > 5.
HAD TO PLAY MIN% of 40 (this is the bart minimum)
2008:
DeAndre Jordan (90)
Javale McGee (90)
Brook Lopez (89.5)
2010:
Hassan Whiteside (91)
DeMarcus Cousins (90)
Derrick Favors (88)
2011:
Nikola Vucevic (88.5)
2012:
Andre Drummond (90.25)
Anthony Davis (89.5)
2013:
Rudy Gobert (92.5)
Steven Adams (88.5)
2014:
Noah Vonley (88.25)
2015:
Myles Turner (88)
2017:
Thomas Bryant (90)
Jarrett Allen (89.25)
2018:
Mo Bamba (94)
Jaren Jackson Jr (91)
Wendell Carter (88.5)
2019:
Bol Bol (91)
Moses Brown (88.75)
2020:
Isaiah Stewart (88.75)
2022:
Mark Williams (90.50)
Walker Kessler (88.25)
2024:
Donovan Clingan (90.75)
Kel’El Ware (88.50)
Alex Sarr (88.25)