Carter Bryant Doesn't Need a Fit Check
Excerpts from Swish Theory's Draft Guide
The following report was published in the Swish Theory’s 2025 NBA Draft Guide. You will not find a more comprehensive, detailed, or accurate resource pertaining to the 2025 NBA Draft. I strongly urge everyone to check it out.
I first noticed Carter Bryant a few years ago while scrolling through TikTok.
It was one of those gimmick player interviews by Bleacher Report, where the reporter asks a clip farm worthy question. Something like “2016 Chino Hills or 2020 Montverde?” But Carter immediately stood out. It was obvious he was a student of the game (he performed well on a quiz of naming former players/their colleges), and each of the answers he provided during interviews was unusually detailed and well-thought out. This was around the time when the Thompsons were at OTE, and their demeanors were unusually similar. I mentioned this to Mike Gribanov at the time, and I’ve been monitoring Carter Bryant’s development ever since.
Form Meets Function
The same precision in Carter’s meticulous interview responses is apparent on the hardwood. Carter has a unique intersection of quick-twitch athleticism, size, and reaction time. He accrued tons of stocks and deflections, putting up 4.3 dBPM, 17.8 DREB%, 5.8% block+ 2.8% steal this season at Arizona. He’s able to absorb momentum and reach into tight spaces to shut down possessions, and his long arms are especially functional with his vert and burst. He is an athlete.
The list of prospects with max vert > 37, sprint < 3.15, and steal rate > 2.5 is just 22 names long (out of a possible 732). As seen in the table above, Carter has a max vert of 39.5 inches, sprint of 3.09 seconds, and steal rate of 2.8%. He comfortably clears these thresholds.
This list showcases fairly rare company, but notice how the vast majority of prospects here are guards. Listed at 6’6.25 shoeless with a 7-foot wingspan, Carter is way bigger than most names here. The only comparable player size-wise is Chris Singleton.
Who?
Chris Singleton was a Florida State power forward who shot 59.6% FT across 3 years in college. Carter shot 70%, with a high school accuracy of 80% FT on an extensive sample. Singleton shot career 48% on 2s, while Carter shot 60% on 2s. Chris Singleton was athletically similar, but far less efficient of a scorer and a much worse shooting prospect than Carter.
Again, Carter is a special athlete, with elite speed, testing, and reaction for size. But he’s also a uniquely good shooter for size. A whopping 60% of his shots were 3s. He’s hitting high-leverage 3s with little space and even less hesitation.
We do not see wings with 60 3PR and positive defense, let alone an uber athletic wing with elite defense. It’s safe to say that Carter’s combination of three-point rate, defensive instincts, run/jump athleticism, and pure size has never been matched.
Flawed Priors
The downside is that Carter is a very raw prospect. The vast majority of his baskets were assisted, which has proven to have a strong bust signal for non-centers. He fouled a ton, and he had very little on-ball equity.
Moreover, the last time we saw Carter in an on-ball role was during AAU, where he was morbidly inefficient and tanked his pre-draft stock. Much of this was because he took 2.4 dribble jumper 2s per game. That’s ridiculous; it’s a volume matched by known college pullup-2 merchants Kawhi Leonard and D’Angelo Russell. But he was also a horrible finisher, and much of that was because he soaked up far more usage. He had a 25% drive frequency, which is an Adou Thiero (best perimeter driver in class) sized proportion! Overall, he shot 39% on 2s, but he also shot 34% from 3 and 88% from the line (37 shot sample).
Sure, Carter wasn’t properly optimized in AAU, but lots of NBA-adjacent talents score way more efficiently inside the arc than he did. From what I’ve seen, those scoring inefficiencies were a big part of the reason why he wasn’t even considered a realistic 1&D prospect coming into the year. Now, in a highly idealized context where he had to make minimal decisions in a low-usage, highly-assisted role, Carter has returned to prominence as a hyperefficient wing? It’s fair to be suspicious.
Closing Thoughts
Carter played in a highly unoptimized system in AAU, yielding comically poor scoring efficiency, and he played in a highly optimized scheme in college, yielding strong efficiency. The reality is that his long-term NBA offensive role will likely be somewhere in between, but there’s no reason his shot diet can’t be as ethical as it was at Arizona.
Assuming he’s able to sustain high three-point rates (if his long-term track record on FTs is any indication, he will be a good shooter for a while) while also finishing through NBA length on cuts and drives, his offensive production will more than suffice. And of course, as long as Carter’s massive standing reach, elite tools, and seamless ability to toggle between on- and off-ball defensive goodness can translate to the league, we’re talking about someone who can really fit into lineups as a true 3&D option, as well as a positive locker room guy.
I’ve continued to follow Carter’s hoops journey since watching that BR interview. An interesting note as I’ve watched his interviews: throughout high school and going into the year, Carter cited midrange heavy players like Jayson Tatum and Paul George as primary influences to his game. Surely this explained his midrange chuckery in AAU.
However, during a recent interview at the draft combine, Carter immediately spoke about how he hopes to be a premier wing stopper who can guard 1-5, and he named Toumani Camara, Trey Murphy, and Herb Jones as players he has been watching. With continued buy-in to his role, I am optimistic that he can be this type of 3&D wing: the type of player who makes highlight blocks one possession and knocks down corner threes the next.