How Good Can Noa Essengue Be?
Excerpts from Swish Theory's Draft Guide
The following report was published in the Swish Theory’s 2025 NBA Draft Guide. You will not find a more comprehensive, detailed, or accurate resource pertaining to the 2025 NBA Draft. I strongly urge everyone to check it out.
If I was a Noa Essengue truther, I would boil his case down to 3 components: production, age, and tools. I’d argue that there’s nothing more useful in prospect evaluation than these components. After all, precocious production has been the most indicative star upside proxy that we’ve ever seen, and the false positives nearly always offer some combination of poor feel and awful athletic tools.
Production+Age
Indeed, few come close to Noa’s precocious production in the FIBA U18 Eurobasket A championships. Amongst players under the age of 17, Noa’s net rating ranked 1st and his PER ranked 3rd. The 5 players around him - Ricky Rubio, Furkan Korkmaz, Enes Freedom, Dragan Bender and Alex Len - were all NBAers.
Across two years in the FIBA U18 Eurobasket tournament, Noa put up the following stat line: 62% true shooting, 11% offensive rebounding rate, 23% defensive rebounding rate, 15% assist rate, 10% turnover rate, 3.1% steal rate, 2.4% block rate, 27% usage rate.
This stands out to me for two reasons. First, U18 Eurobasket is a legit tournament that most NBA players have performed quite well at (vast majority of NBA players are 22+ PER here), and Noa absolutely crushed it … while being quite a bit younger than his comp on average.
Second, it hints at how well Noa could potentially scale with usage. Noa hit 33.5 PER + 40.1 NET, but it’s especially notable how strong his rebound-assist-stock integration was. On a relatively large usage, Noa was a reasonably good passer while avoiding TOs. Despite his usage increase, he was efficient and still able to put up a monster 3.1% steal rate. This is as close to ideal as you could expect for a high-usage scorer, and it was across a solid 14-game sample size in a high-level competition.
Noa has continued his production in the German BBL league, producing for one of the best EuroCup teams this year. He’s hit 18.5 PER and 62% TS, which is quite good. However, it’s his combination of monster free throw rate (0.7) and turnover avoidance (1.1 A:TO + 11% TO) that has many claiming star upside.
As a brief aside on the FTR: while the number itself is gaudy and has been used by draftniks to indicate high upside, it should be noted that most FTR gods are either high drive frequency merchants (see: Jimmy Butler or Jerami Grant) or postup gods (Embiid, Bam, etc). I cannot recall a player with such a low drive frequency (9.7%) or postup frequency (6.3%) that generated such a high rate of fouls (in transition).
Tools
Noa’s 70% rim finishing and 70 FTR indicate strong applied use of tools, but it should be noted how good his tools really are. Standing 6’11 barefoot with a 35-inch max vert and 10.6 lane agility, Noa is long, agile, and can jump with the best of them. His combine testing is otherworldly: the tallest player to hit < 3.2s sprint, < 10.8s lane agility, and > 33 inch max vert at any draft combine (NBA, G League, Portsmouth) was the 6'9 Nene.
Unsurprisingly, Noa leverages his ridiculous athletic gifts in open court transition situations.
So to be clear, Noa is likely one of the best athletes over 6’10 ever. In a 14 game sample vs U18 comp, he put up one of the best PER and net rating that we’ve seen through efficient scoring, TO avoidance, and great stocks. He also happens not to turn 19 until December. What’s not to love about this intersection of age, production, tools, and feel?
Questions
Notice how we haven’t talked about what Noa actually does on the court. Turns out, his role isn’t particularly complex. Nearly 60% of his scoring possessions come in three ways: spotups, cuts, and transition scoring.
There’s no denying that he is a ridiculous transition scorer. He draws a foul on 33% of his attempts in transition, good for a berserk 1.04 FTR. He is taking more than a FT per FGA attempted in these situations. These are heights I can’t recall anyone reaching at this type of volume. He does not shy from contact at all, despite being one of the skinniest players in the draft. He shifts his momentum right into defenders’ bodies without any hesitation, and he gives no time for opposing bigs to prep for the contest.
Still, Noa simply doesn’t have midrange counter. He doesn’t take many runners or pullup 2s, he takes no hooks, and pretty much every basket is at the rim. How good of a shooter can Noa be? I’m somewhat optimistic for the 17 year old with 0.3 3PR, but his track record is devious at worst. At best, one can point to his rapid developmental momentum and strong FT% with feel to project continued shooting improvement. The history of successful players with lack of passing (< 12% assist), driving (< 12% driving frequency) and midrange counter volume (most bigs are at least hook maxxing) is highly limited
Another set of questions I have pertains to his defense. Noa should be somewhat switchable, and he has an entire highlight reel of pickpocketing passes into transition dunks. But for a dude with a 7 foot WS + 9 foot SR, a sub 3% block rate is pretty low. This isn’t a one off either; Noa’s career FIBA U18 block rate was 3%. I would presume some of this has to do with his sinewy frame: his super low BMI and mediocre WS make it somewhat difficult to contest consistently. Perhaps this explains his fairly high foul rate too. As a near-seven footer with a 9’1 SR and remarkable 1 A:TO + 2% steal playing in the top German league, Noa offers indication of high feel for size. The high foul rate and lack of blocks dispute this high feel narrative, but especially coupled with film, I am optimistic that Noa has quicker reaction speed than most 17 year olds with his size.
This combination of infrequent driving, poor intermediate area counters, and lack of passing are historically difficult to overcome. He could be considered a tweener, in that he can score around the rim but isn’t large enough to play the 5 and not good enough of a shooter to score the 3. This is the ultimate Noa concern: he is trait-maxxed in that he has strong FTR, a:to, and elite production for age, but he doesn’t really have any standout skill in the HC. He’s a true tweener on O, and coupled with his inability to guard up with his physical/block deficiencies, I wonder how many minutes he can consistently play without meaningful shooting or physical development.
Could this be Giannis?
Now, for a question I’m sure we’ve all thought of (or maybe it’s just me): could this guy actually be Giannis?
For the optimist: one trait that has reinforced Giannis’s explosiveness at that size is his massive Achilles length. Measured early in his career, Giannis has a 13 inch long Achilles tendon, which is double the length of the average male. This length manifests in greater activation of explosive movement and acceleration.
I doubt there is an official “Achilles tendon length” listing for Noa, but it is immediately clear on watch of Noa that he has very long legs, and much of that length is centralized in the Achilles region. While it’s unclear whether he has quite as long Achilles tendons as Giannis, Noa’s open court acceleration and immense vertical may be an indication that it’s close.
For the pessimist: Noa has a 7 foot wingspan. Giannis has a 7’4 wingspan. Enough said. Noa is similarly skinny to pre-draft Giannis, but that implies Noa would also have to match Giannis’ generational physical development, as he gained 50 pounds from pre-draft to his current listing. I guess it’s not completely out of the range of possibilities, but I don’t think Noa is ever reaching Giannis’ finishing or defensive goodness with mediocre length for size.
Closing Thoughts
Overall, I struggle to rate Noa.
It’s unfair to call Noa a total mystery box, but it’s hard to project what he’ll be in the league. He’s definitely an NBA-caliber player, but he is one of the highest variance NBA prospects in recent memory. He could very well be a modern tweener, with a lack of projectable skill in the HC, mediocre stock, and good height but lack of weight and length.
Still, strong precocious production with feel and elite athletic tools is theoretically a recipe for stardom. And I do think the absolute dominance of Cooper Flagg has desensitized us from the absurdity of Noa’s production relative to age. If his U18 Euro sample was any indication, Noa has a legit ceiling as an efficient creator with high feel on both ends. I am generally bullish on Noa’s NBA upside.