2024 Draft Notes: DaRon Holmes
March 2024: My favorite sleeper in the 2024 NBA Draft
This was published in Swish Theory’s 2024 NBA Draft Sleepers Roundtable, found here.
DaRon Holmes is putting up one of the most well-rounded, dominant seasons in recent memory, and he’s getting late second round buzz. Here’s why I find that baffling.
Let’s get some things out of the way: DaRon Holmes is somewhat undersized for his position (6’10 in shoes), has middling length (7’0 WS), he is a bit old (August 2002 bday makes him ~senior aged), and he plays in a mid-major conference (although the A10 is arguably just as good as some P5 conferences). These are all valid criticisms, and should certainly be considered in ascertaining his upside. And yet, after watching DaRon for three years, I have two contentions that I will qualify below: 1) DaRon Holmes is putting up one of the greatest rim scoring seasons ever. 2) DaRon Holmes might be the most well rounded big man ever.
Starting with the first contention: from 2008 to 2023, there have been 37 instances where a player dunked 75 dunks or more. Five players have managed to do this twice: Udoka Azubuike, Tacko Fall, Obi Toppin, Chimezie Metu, and of course DaRon Holmes. Currently, DaRon is on pace to be the first player to do this 3 times! This baseline of interior dominance is important, but so is the span of his dominance. Upperclassmen are often maligned for only dominating once they reach a certain age threshold, thereby making their dominance seemingly untranslatable. Well, DaRon has been dunking to oblivion since his freshman season. His freshman season was actually a quasi-statistical doppelganger to Jalen Duren, and he was one of 7 players to dunk 80 times as a freshman (the other 6 were all lottery picks: AD, Ayton, Bagley, Obi, Drummond, and Bam. Dunks are my favorite way of ascertaining functional interior dominance: it’s the play type with the highest conversion percentage, yet it also has the highest barrier to consistent entry.
There’s so many more ways I could reiterate Holmes’ interior goodness. He’s scoring a whooping 80% at the rim on very high volume (will likely hit 200 rim attempts) and he’s getting to the line at an extremely high rate (70 FTR on the season). This combination of dunks/rim %/ FTR is virtually unmatched. For context, there have only been 3 seasons where a player has even reached 65 FTR and 80 dunks: Bam, Mason Plumlee, and Tacko Fall, with DaRon and Edey on pace to crush these numbers this year.
I’ve just spit out a cacophony of numbers to demonstrate DaRon’s interior dominance, some of which may admittedly be redundant. He also happens to be the rare disciplined rim protector, with both a strong rim protection record and foul rate reminiscent of a guard (career 7.6% block and 2.3 fouls per 50). But the main point is that DaRon doesn’t just exhibit above average interior dominance: by all accounts, he is one of the most dominant rim forces we have ever seen. There are some concerns about translatability, sure, but these are all relative. Even adjusting for length, means of winning, and conference strength, DaRon should at least be a solid bet to be a well-above-average rim force in the league.
However, it would be incredibly reductive to call DaRon an interior scoring merchant. He is also one of the best big man passers I have ever seen. He can catch the ball on the perimeter, force his way to the rim off a dribble drive and sling a one handed pass to the weak side for an open 3. He can get to a post-up and time pocket passes on the inside to cutters. He can bring the ball up the court and hit a tween as he scans the floor, and consistently leverages his rim gravity to make connective reads out of the post. This type of ball handling skill and passing acumen is quite rare for a 6’10 big, and it manifests in his 19% assist rate. Defenders truly have to pick their poison with DaRon – sit back and watch your center get absolutely cooked by DaRon inside the post en route to another dunk, or help off your man too hard and watch as DaRon wastes no time finding the open man.
I don’t really care too much about perimeter shooting numbers for prospects, but DaRon is putting up 5 3PA/100 and 37% 3P, while shooting 69% on FTs. Even if I’m not totally sold that he’s going to be a pick and pop force in his prime a la Kevin Love, this is a pretty significant data point. This year, there’s only 18 players 6’10 or taller who even meet 3 3PA/100, 35% 3P, and 65% FT. To me, this is just a testament to DaRon’s perimeter skill and fluidity, and this perimeter volume is already operating as a functional outlet for him to create advantages off closeouts.
It’s pretty clear that DaRon is an impressive passer and shooter – how many big men are able to put up 19% assist and 5 3PA/100 simultaneously? It’s a rare skill set with intuitive translatability, as it’s easy to imagine the utility of a post hub who can pick and pop or even run some delay actions from the jump. At the same time, there’s only been a couple players who have even approached DaRon’s statistical rate of interior dominance, and even fewer who can dominate the rim at both ends.
Here’s the bottom line: there has NEVER been a prospect who approaches DaRon’s goodness at the intersection of feel, shooting, and interior scoring. One of the best statistical rim scorers also happens to be an awesome passer and bonafide shooter, all while protecting the rim at a high level? This is absolutely insane territory, and I’m running out of ways to emphasize this. Since 2008, there have only been 3 players with 50 dunks, 15% assist, and literally just 1 3PA/100: Zion, Obi, and Josh Jackson. None of them were even close to DaRon’s block rate or even 3PA/100 (Zion was the closest at 3.9 3PA/100). For reference, DaRon is on pace to pulverize these thresholds; he’s on pace for 80 dunks, 19% assist, and 5 3PA/100.
I don’t need to cook up another bart query to exemplify the extraordinary nature of this skillset. DaRon Holmes has the most fascinating skill integration for a big that I’ve ever seen, and he does it while being elite to generational in all the facets you want to see for a traditional big man. Oftentimes, when we look for unicorns among bigs, we fail to account for whether or not they are good at traditional big man things. So many scrawny bigs have failed because their movement aesthetics weren’t adequately functional to overcome their physical deficiencies. And now, we have one of the most physically dominant big men in the barttorvik.com era entering the draft, and this player also happens to be able to dribble, shoot and pass at a high level relative to position? And he’s projected to go undrafted by several outlets? By all accounts, his integration of skills in conjunction with his baseline of sheer dominance is incredibly rare and offers a tantalizing combination of high floor and untapped ceiling. This is the type of bet I want my front office making.